Crude Oil Drops 4% Today

I bet you won't see that headline in the papers. Crude oil prices came down to the lower $58 level. The big news, however, was oil breaking $60 a barrel. Part of that is due to oil speculation and wasteful manufacturers like China sucking up record amounts of oil.

Another Look at Minimum Wage

I wouldn't consider myself in lockstep with the Republican Party. I don't even think I'm a solid conservative. Those labels frequently mean different things, anyway. There are social and economic conservatives. There are big tent Republicans and moderates and mavericks. Like all government, the individuals with the R next to their name often do things with which I disagree.

One thing I've been irked by is the spinning of gas price escalation. The claim is that, adjusted for inflation, gas prices would have to be over $3 a gallon to compare to 1970s peaks. That may be good in some sense, but gas prices doubled from 1977-1981. This decade, gas prices have nearly doubled since the terrorism-driven low in late 2001. Inflation itself is tough to pin down as an indicator. Wage inflation is affected by huge top salaries while low wage growth stagnates.

So, I came up with a subversive indicator of ecomonic hardship. Below is a graph comparing the number of gallons of gas you can buy on one hour of minimum wage from 1970 to 2005. Gas prices are taken from a California website but a 2005 price of 2.17 a gallon seems pretty close or even low to me. Minimum Wage is data from about.com.


Like all statistics, the numbers are pretty meaningless. However, since free market types continue to use inflation adjusted gas prices, I have to point out that the amount of gas Minimum Wage can buy is at an all time low, 2.4 gallons compared to 2.5 at the end of the 1970's recession. Over the last 35 years, the average amount of gas at minimum wage is 3.5 gallons. At current pump prices, Minimum Wage would have to be around $7.50 an hour with that ratio.

Looking just at Minimum Wage data, the spreadsheet defined linear extrapolation puts a historical level for 2005 to be about $6 an hour. New York has, in fact, done this. Of course, the Minimum Wage has its own pitfalls. As the minimum stuck, the market has driven wages up. Many $5.15 an hour jobs are stepping stones to people with little work experience. In some cases, raises in minimum wage leads to the elimination of jobs.

This goes back to my initial point. I like to think the market can set their own wages. Sometimes, though, I wonder about the motives of business. More than that, I don't like politicians avoiding their basic responsibility to enforce laws. As the market drives wages up, lax immigration policy drives them back down. While business ramps up in the US, China uses Communist monetary practices on the open market while America does nothing. Does the answer involve raising the Minimum Wage? Probably not, but that's what will happen if Republicans don't get more conservative.

Tags: Gas Prices, Minimum Wage

The Supremes: Decades of Incompetence

For those that think only the latest Supreme Court decision was a dismal failure, this New York Times editorial shows the impetus for the bad land and tribal decisions.

And yet it is bad federal law that got us into this mess. For centuries, our legal system recognized, through statutes of limitation and related concepts, that it is unfair and economically destructive to hold the door openfor the revival of long-dormant grievances. But in a profoundly misguided 5-to-4 decision in a 1985 case involving the Oneidas, the United States Supreme Court, influenced by guilt over the nation's sorry history in this area, decided that Indian land claims were an exception and not subject to time limits.

Justice John Paul Stevens wrote an eloquent dissent. "This decision upsets long-settled expectations in the ownership of real property," he noted. "The court, no doubt, believes that it is undoing a grave historical injustice, but in doing so it has
caused another, which only Congress may now rectify."

And Justice Stevens quoted an 1831 case, Lewis v. Marshall: "Nothing so much retards the growth and prosperity of a country as insecurity of titles to real estate. Labor is paralyzed where the enjoyment of its fruits is uncertain; and litigation without limit produces ruinous consequences to individuals."

Your Home is Their Castle

I thought I would join the chorus of blogs taking on the recent Supreme Court Kelo decision. The repsonse shows that true conservatism is not dead. The kind of business at all costs attitude projected on conservatives by liberals would mean we'd support kicking out worthless homeowners for expensive new developments. Conservatism has rallied, however, and the right of property owners has taken the center stage.

Locals like NYCO have compared this to Sherrill's case against the Oneidas, calling all US residents "Indians" now I'd point out there are a few differences. Sherrill was an overwhealming 8-1 decision, while Kelo v. New London was a 5-4 squeaker. The Sherrill decision puts the Oneida Nation in the same boat as other businesses that use local services like roadways and utilities. The Kelo decision is aimed directly at homeowners.

This case touches on an important local situation. Do you really own your property? The answer is truly yes and no. You can buy a house and land, but you will probably pay rent for the rest of your life. In most parts on the country, a landowner has to pay property taxes. If you don't or can't pay these taxes, the land you own will be confiscated. Due to recent laws, your house could be worth 5 times your tax bill and still be stolen from under you with no compensation.

In New York, you have to pay county, city and school taxes. If Sherrill did get their tax revenue from the Oneidas, they might be able to elimiate their taxes. Rome, however, has gone beyond the breaking point. The low standard of living has made this area a haven for those who generally go on Medicaid. That drives up the county's Medicaid cost. The Rome School District has been on a drunken spending spree so long they actually had to slash the budget for once. Those two factors have made a Rome homeowner's taxes around 5% of the total assessed value to be paid every year! Of course, assessments have little to do with the fair market value. You could end up paying for your house every 15-20 years.

It is having an impact. Oneida County tried to shift the property tax burden this year by jacking up the sales tax by 18% (19% taking into account the sales tax cut by the state). The Rome School District will make up the budget shortfall this year by raising property taxes. I can't go anywhere in this city now without driving on a street with For Sale signs on it. We may need jobs, but we really need a government that knows the maximum level they can spend and not spend any more. If your home is taken by a mall development or a tax bill that exceeds your post-layoff annual income, it's just as lost.

Mr. College

I'm going to give PBS a pass this week even considering their campaign to get more money. I've found myself watching more on WCNY this week than any of the other networks. Thursday's offering was "Declining by Degrees," a documentary about college. The focus was on the way that colleges are not living up to the ideals of a learning institution turning out bright and capable adults.

I found the first hour to be very representative of the negative experiences I had in college. Large classes, disinterested students and inadequate preparation in high school lead to students who sink and some who get by parroting information and regular cheating. I made just about all the mistakes in college, including being to ashamed from falling behind to ask for help that was not frequently available anyway.

Typical of PBS, the second hour became an indictment of the broken "social contract" where the Federal government gives Pell grants that pay 95% of a college tuition. The problem is that the social contract was written by President Johnson at a time when a large majority of the successful were able to modestly fund the poor and unsuccessful. Since that time, the costs of "social" functions like medicine, education and housing have exploded well beyond the growth of inflation as well as wages.

Putting that aside, I do think there is a serious problem with class disparity in America. Of course, I thought that in the mid 1990s while Clinton was president. At that time, I thought the problem was mine. Now, I'm told that a three year political period has made the country a cesspool of waste and corruption.

I'm not buying it. Government spending leads to cash addiction. Students who got a free ride to college initiallyy had to work hard or be flunked out. Then the colleges learned to moderate their grading and expectations. Colleges turned out kids who had less abilities and needed more training by business. Lately, colleges have turned to expensive building projects to lure students with parental incomes to pay full rides to college.

How Congress Is Spending Your Money

This chart from the Cato Institute shows the increase in spending from 1994-2005 by the Republican led Congress.




One can see that Education spending is only shadowed by the Justice Department. Education spending has doubled over the time, wich amounts to a 6% annual increase for a decade. Defense grew by a more modest 68%. All but the last four grew by more than a 4% annual rate. Social Security is not counted, since it is internally funded. Let's not forget that it takes the biggest bite out of a lower class paycheck.

I generally like what the Republicans stand for, but power likes to draw power to itself. Incumbents spend money to stay in office, and the voters keep pork barrel representitives there to bring in federal revenue. This is why I ultimately support term limits. Office holders would have to compete without seniority in primaries and general elections.


Tags: Congress, Term Limits

The Edification of Shelby Knox

Idealogues usually seek to galvanize those who side with them and sway those sitting on the fence. The rare find is the unbeliever who undergoes the landmark conversion. These people are so sought after that their own personal issues may be set aside. There's Norma McCorvey, the "Roe" of Roe v Wade who has become a Christian pro-life activist, even though she has a lesbian lover.

The transformative power of liberalism is the moral to the story in "The Education of Shelby Knox." The documentary aired tonight on PBS' POV program. It follows a Frontline about civilian contractors in Iraq who spend too much government money and are all owned by Haliburton. Don't worry though, PBS isn't liberal.

This documentary starts out as a slice of life in the sleepy (in a NYC filmmaker's eyes) town of Lubbock, Texas (population 199,000). This city has one of the highest teen pregnancy rates and an abstinence-only sex education policy. One wonders if every city with high pregnancy rates has the same sex-ed system, but the documentary doesn't bother with such minutiae. This is the intro to the Shelby Knox Show.

Knox is a churchgoing, hard-driving "good Southern Baptist girl" who among her many extracurriculars, is a member of the city financed Lubbock Youth Commission dealing with local issues centered around teen disrespect and unruly behavior. Her displeasure at being crossed develops early when she loses an election for mayor of the Commission to Corey Nichols, the first villain of the piece.

There are villains aplenty throughout the 76 minute program. Among them are Ed Ainsworth, a youth pastor who promotes abstinence and seems to go off track when he deviates from his motivational script. There is also Jack Clemmons, the do-nothing superintendent who was having an affair and using school computers to talk dirty with an employee. There are also various Christians and Republicans who dare to stand up for their beliefs. By the end, the word 'Republican" comes out as more of an epithet when Knox says it.

Shelby Knox becomes increasingly indignant at the religious leaders who try to explain Baptist teaching. She starts to argue that no one can tell her what she should believe God wants from her. Generally, her pastor would be the one to tell her about the teachings of the Bible. She later believes that premarital sex and homosexuality are all okay in God's eyes after a supposed moral opposition to them.

Shelby's "True Love Waits" pledge holds an important role in the movie. The fact that she is willing to wait even while she goes to contraceptive demonstrations supports the idea that sex-ed and abstinence are not mutually exclusive. Of course, Knox was pretty dismissive about the teenage dating scene from the start. One suspects she was planning all along to save herself from small town boys.

It is commendable to have enough self esteem so that you do not derive it from the attention of a guy or your peers. It becomes a problem when you have have such a high opinion of yourself that you seek out the most public avenues of attention getting.

The story changes when GAP, a gay student group that wants to form a club in Lubbock schools, sues the district. They are thwarted by the district's policy of barring non-school sponsored clubs. Shelby then tries to be the power broker to bring GAP and the Youth Commission together. Corey Nichols sees disaster ahead and decides GAP's fight is not their fight. As Knox flounders at the Commission, she lashes out by working with GAP on her own. The major focus on sex education causes the city to question funding the Youth Commission. Nichols decides to save it as a community service organization and Knox throws herself into the GAP battle.

As the story progresses, Shelby's parents increasingly came off as well-meaning doormats. They argue that she might not want to go so far, but in the next scene she's driving around in a brand new SUV worth about as much as my house. They continually praise her for individuality (while followed around by a like-minded camera crew) as she breaks further from parental teachings. The take-out dinner scene before the sex-ed rally also makes you wonder how often the parents are around.

The truth is that Shelby Knox did not experience personal growth over two years that made her see the light of liberalism. She went from group to group, responding to the ego boost that being a contrarian offered. The Youth Commission exposed her to the idea of sex education. When she lost the election, she then threw herself into sex-ed to the exclusion of other Commission issues. When they decided to drop the issue, she went with a gay group seeking a club in the high school. When that failed, she set her sights toward college, where she is regarded as a trailblazer. One hard to find nugget on the web mentions that Shelby was aided in her "education" by the documentarians themselves

Corey Nichols probably said it best when he described her as a "limelight chaser." Shelby Knox had a film crew point the light at her. The more she broke out, the more often she got the limelight. Being the good girl wasn't nearly as rewarding as being a star.


Tag: Shelby Knox

Linkless

I seem to have lost the right side of my blog. If anyone has any ideas, let me know. I still blame blogger.com.



Update: Side bar is back. I guess the republising stopped midway again.

Timberrr!

Now everyone is having their shady trees cut in Lee out of fear of them coming down on power lines and destroying their houses. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but isn't it interesting that the power company thinks the trees should be cut down? Considering trees protect houses from sun in the summer and wind in the winter and lower the heating/cooling bills, you have to wonder about their motives. Don't give me the pavement argument, either. That road's wear and tear is from non residents heading north.

Cell Hell

Upstate Blog brought the insanity of New York car leases to my attention. Today, I heard about a new regulatory mess. Assemblyman Daniel J. O'Donnell (of New York City, of course) along with the AARP, wants to pass regulations on the cell phone providers to protect old people who don't understand complicated business practices like paying a phone bill. A story at Yahoo shows that O'Donnell wants to make carriers provide a list of future charges, a map, submit to a government resolution system and let the buyer cancel the contract after the first bill.

I'm not entirely against all the ideas in the bill, but it might be better if they were voluntary. The AARP sells credit cards, insurance and other products to their members. Maybe they can hook up with a carrier who will provide all that information. The thing I find idiotic is the right of refusal after the first bill.

People sign these contracts for a reason. If they stop paying, they get a termination fee and have to pay for their phones. I predict the first result of this regulation will be saying bye-bye to free phones. A lot of other paperwork fees will likely be added on, giving government what it wants; people tied to land lines and paying government charges and fees. Notice the state never mails you a breakdown of where your tax money goes.

Most of all, I object to regulation over information. If you don't want unforeseen charges, get a prepaid phone. Most of them let you pay up a year in advance if you like. In fact, it's the perfect object for the "emergency" user. Coverage maps are on carrier websites. Even if you don't have a computer, have the seller put it up on their computer. And if you're buying your cell phone from a mall kiosk I have no sympathy for you.

Take that, Oneida Nation!

It seems that the Department of the Interior has decided that not only is purchased land taxable, but a county can forclose on it if taxes are not paid. I still predict this will make little difference. I wonder how much this is costing Ray in legal fees.

AARP: Eat the Young

While most people are focusing on Howard Dean's newest stab at Republicans, I've been paying attention to the economic rhetoric. Along with the claims that more people in the US are uninsured than ever before (likely due to the rise in population, illegal immigration and medical litigation; ha) and wages are remaining flat while costs are rising, the claim has been forwarded that the next generation will have a lower standard of living than the previous one.

Similar claims were made at the depth of the early 90s recession when few could conceive of an information economy. Economic problems are more regional (like Central New York) than national. Economic indicators are often contradictory, where stocks go up after massive layoff news or higher oil prices show a booming economy. Even if the dire predictions are true, one thing puzzles me.

President Bush is continuing on his fixing Social Security tour. Democrats and the AARP are trying to head off his efforts by claiming that the system should stay the way it is. The only viable liberal "fix" is to raise taxes on people making over $90,000 a year. This may be a problem since the wealthy are mobile and can move to countries where 12% of their income will be safe from government hands. The greatest warning, however, was the claim that "Social Security has virtually eliminated poverty among the elderly."

So, under the zero sum economics where "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" we could assume that people on Social Security are relatively rich while people who still pay into it are poorer. In my own case, I make far less than the median income and FICA is the largest chunk taken out before Federal tax (sometimes the largest). The down side is that I never get it back in a refund. Also, one time I got a paycheck for $20 and FICA was the only thing they took out.

Let's look at an example. Some poor shlub is working for $6 an hour. Raising minimum wage from $5.15 was New York's nod to the working poor. Too bad some stores in the area closed at the prospect. This person who kept his job is lucky enough to get 40 hours a week and 2000 hours a year. While they net $12,000 Uncle Sam takes out about $600 and Uncle Pataki gets $150. Medicare and SDI get another $200. Social Security gets the lion's share with $750 from your check. Yes, that is more than federal and state combined. Let's not forget the employer contribution is another $750. Now $1500 of your work product goes to Social Security.

With an income of $12,000 you can expect to get $500 of the tax withholding refunded. In that case, you've netted about $10,800. Where did your Social Security money go? Depending on the recipient, you've covered less than one month's Social Security check of a low middle income earner. Will you miss $750? You will if it equals 2 car payments, a few months of heating bills, a month of rent or an entire year of gas for a 30 mile total trip to work each day.

Since the mid 80's Social Security tax increase, a new generation has had to make due with less. While take home pay is stagnant, employer costs for labor are skyrocketing. Retirees in Oneida County are cashing their Social Security checks to gamble at the Turning Stone and the cashier at the gas station if footing the bill. I might not have an answer for this problem, but I have a pretty good idea how young people are finding it hard to get by.



Tags: Turning Stone, Social Security

Extreme Makeover: Turning Stone Edition

The Rome Sentinel has a story about the costs of Turning Stone's massive hotel project. The $300 million figure does not include the previous construction projects in the last 5 years. What this boils down to is a 'nation' of 1000 people with a casino/hotel complex worth $400 million refusing to pay a $2 million tax bill. This 0.5% tax would likely be for this year only. Verona believes that their share of the Oneida County sales tax hike would be increased so much by Turning Stone on the tax rolls that no one, including the nation would have to pay property tax in the town.

Halbritter and his business interests are just being stubborn now. They have been abusing the concept of sovereignty to buy up high tax farmland near the Thruway and created a tax free empire based on vice and greed. All you people who go to the casino should be ashamed of yourselves.

I've read a few people complain about the treatment of Native Americans and the Treaty on Canandaigua and stolen land and protected status and every other piece of liberal propaganda. I find it ironic that people who opposes taxes on the poor support gambling. I find it bizarre that the people who love taxing the rich want the biggest hotel complex in Central New York to continue raking in money tax free. I find it laughable that the people who extol the evils of Wal-Mart want this entertainment megastore to keep growing until it envelops half of Verona.

The fact is that there would have been no local business, water supply or town services in Verona had this "tribal land" remained tribal. A group of 1,000 people would not have been able to afford it. Had the land remained in the Oneidas' hands this whole time, the government would not have run 365 let alone the Thruway into protected land. The nation should be thanking New York state every day that we did something with their useless property and let them buy it back.


Tags: Oneida Nation, Turning Stone

Stop Outsourcing Translators

Michelle Malkin has an excellent entry about the US considering the idea of actually training Americans to translate Arabic. Previously, we had been using recent immigrants who have turned on us on more than one occasion. I learned two languages in high school, I think it is perfectly possible that the government can train US citizens in a few years.

Biodiesel

President Bush brought up the production of biodiesel and nuclear power in this country. He talked about soybeans, but corn also holds some use in this area. I'm a fan of reasonable methods of energy reduction. I'd like to see an electric co-op in Rome to offer some competition to NiMo's stranglehold on the people in this city.

My brief daliance in the sciences made me a fan of nuclear power as well. It's clean and safe and only produces kilograms of nuclear material. Since there's no national storage facility, most of it is stored at the plants. France and Japan use it heavily because of their lack of natural resources, and they've found a way to be happy with it and dampen the criticism.

The Political Quiz

With the plight of Middleman, I have decided to put together a quiz to determine which side of the fence people sit on. There are questions, multiple choice. Scoring is in the comments section. Feel free to post your results there, too.



1. When I turn on the TV for some news, I watch:
a. Fox News
b. MSNBC
c. CNN

2. I (would like to) drive:
a. The smallest vehicle possible, especially if it runs on batteries and vegetable oil.
b. An SUV/truck/Hummer that has never had a load bigger than a big screen TV in the back.
c. A nice reliable sedan with good mileage and comfortable seating.

3. Which sport do you prefer?
a. Baseball
b. Tennis
c. Football

4. America needs more:
a. CEOs.
b. Engineers.
c. Lawyers.

5. What is a living wage?
a. The way to counteract Wal-Mart's low wages and no health insurance.
b. A way to take money from working people and give it to government contract employees.
c. It would be about $10 an hour in Rome.

6. My favorite New York politician is:
a. Rudy Giuliani.
b. Hillary Clinton.
c. Why am I still living here?

7. Social Security:
a. Should be abolished.
b. Takes a bite out of my paycheck, but I might need it.
c. Keeps the elderly from eating cat food in the gutter.

8. How do you feel about illegal immigration?
a. Corporations use them as slave labor, and these migrants should be given amnesty and unionize.
b. America needs people to do the jobs citizens won't to keep prices down.
c. If the country can't control its borders, we don't know who is coming across.

9. The Theory of Evolution:
a. Should be covered in school curricula.
b. Proves there is no God.
c. Is full of holes.

10. What best describes a good meal?
a. A rare steak and potatoes with domestic beer followed by a big cigar.
b. Chicken Parmesan and salad followed by ice cream.
c. Bean sprouts and lentils topped off with some creamy tofu.

11. Elections:
a. Can be easily manipulated by black box electronic voting machines.
b. Are plagued by illegal aliens and felons who vote.
c. Are generally fair given the number of voters.

12. My favorite season is:
a. Spring.
b. Summer.
c. Fall.

13. The military:
a. Is the only legitimate government expense.
b. Defends our freedom even if we don't agree with them.
c. Is a tool of the government.

14. Tribal land:
a. Can never make up for 400 years of oppression and any white complainers are racist.
b. Is a fantasy land where Indians get to have all the gambling and tax free cigarettes other businesses are denied.
c. Should serve its people along with the surrounding community.

15. The best movie of 2004 was:
a. Spiderman 2.
b. Fahrenheit 9/11.
c. The Passion of the Christ.

16. What do you think of illegal drugs?
a. If they are made legal, I don't want to pay for treatment programs.
b. Government should create alternatives to drug use, rather than jail users.
c. Marijuana should be legalized.

17. I recycle:
a. Always and I make sure to buy eco-friendly products.
b. Only to keep the garbage Nazis of my back.
c. If it isn't too much trouble.

18. I do my grocery shopping:
a. At a local supermarket.
b. With a local shop owner or farmer's market.
c. At a big box superstore, even if it's far away.

19. If I'm in New York City, I might pick up a copy of:
a. The New York Post.
b. The New York Daily News.
c. The New York Times.

20. Blogging:
a. Could end up as the next talk radio if left unchecked.
b. Does the work that network news and newspapers can no longer do.
c. Is a mix of opinion, information and personal interests.

The Rome Booze Center

Ken Gotte wants to get a two story bar zoned for the location of the old Rome TV Center. This city probably needs another bar like it needs more empty retail space, but I am quite amused that the new bar will be located next to the Rome Working Solutions employment office.

The City of Oneida

Most of my shopping of late has been in the realm of non-taxable groceries. But I did take a trip to the Oneida Wal-Mart. It was a pretty nice drive except for the heat. I took a look at some TVs and DVD burners that would be considerably less expensive sans Oneida County's 10% tax. Oneida also has a nice main drag unlike the musical charis game of business realignment in Rome.

Some relevant past entries:

Maps to Tax Freedom

The way a 9.5% tax is really a 10% tax.

Fan mail for Joe Griffo

Oneida County Bloggers, Unite!

After the news of Buffalo's small but exciting Bloggercon, Middleman in Central New Yorkis yearning for a local Bloggercon of his own. I like the idea since I don't get out much on my own anyway. I thought I'd publicize it here, but if anyone is interested, you can go to Marty's comments thread.

Rome NY