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Sunday, January 06, 2019

Congress - Now with Brindisi!

I was listening to Anthony Brindisi on WIBX this week on his choice for Speaker of the House. He chose Joe Biden as a way to keep his pledge of not voting for Nancy Pelosi, but also making his protest vote effectively useless. The 15 Democrats who were allowed to vote otherwise either voted "present" or anyone else, because anyone in the US can be Speaker.

Another New York Representative, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also pledged to vote against Pelosi, but she was told she had to. The difference between her and Brindisi is that AOC got 78% of the vote in her district and Brindisi got 50.39%. Nancy Pelosi is not evil incarnate to Republicans not just because of what she wants to do, but because she is effective at what she does. Running away from Pelosi from the right was vital to Brindisi, running away from her then voting for Pelosi on the left by Cortez is easily survivable.

Now, look at the campaign of Claudia Tenney. She ran in a marginally Republican district, (Cook Report gave it a R+6 last year) but lost a primary fight in 2014. In 2016, she ran largely unopposed in the primary, but only won with 44% of the vote in a three-way race. Tenney came into office on the "Trump Train" because his ideas matched her Tea Party agenda. However, she also failed to be responsive to her constituents. Those who listen to WIBX know that her frequent calls to the show ended when Tenney was able to win the election without them. Of course, Bill Keeler is a radio host with a pretty strong anti-Trump bias. However, Tenney also avoided voters who could challenge her on Obamacare repeal. Instead, she used pre-screened telephone town halls to listen to the people she wanted to hear.

Tenney was a star in pro-Trump circles and President Trump, along with both sons, went to different events in Oneida County to support her. Unfortunately, a completely non-centrist Republican did not have a great chance of winning. At the same time, Brindisi needs to be a clear centrist to hold his seat. In the next two years, one of the many "RINO" Republicans may see his chance. However, if Nancy Pelosi continues to allow a few members to criticize her while Trump allows no one to criticize him, Brindisi could keep that seat through 2022.

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