Women Hate Sarah Palin

The early polls asking about Palin sight-unseen as a VP choice show something interesting. Men think she is qualified by 5-10% more than women do. The conclusion among a number of bloggers is that she'll have little ability to poach women voters from the Democrats.

First, there is a fundamental poll error involved. There was a poll asking if Republicans or Democrats have better sex. The answer was Republicans. The reason is that more men are Republicans and more women are Democrats, especially unmarried ones. Therefore, in a man/woman separated poll, the plurality of women will be Democrats and not Palin fans.

Second is what I would call the Obama Effect. Remember when Barack Obama was getting creamed by Hillary Clinton among African-American voters? It turns out that this group thought Obama didn't have a chance and Hillary represented the interests of the black community. However, independent white voters in key states pushed the delegate count in Obama's favor and African-Americans quickly came to his camp.

The same thing could happen with Sarah Palin. If moderate women see this 44 year old mother of 5 being attacked for not staying barefoot at home as similar to themselves, it could have an effect. If McCain-Palin gets above 50% and there is a chance of the first woman being elected to the office of Vice President, it could lead to an historic tipping point.